Prediction of Alastair Gray vs Sebastian Fanselow at M25 Vale do Lobo 11-21-25

• Alastair Gray has a stronger second serve, winning 48.77% of points, compared to Sebastian Fanselow's 44.61%. Could this edge be decisive in their match?
• While Gray excels at returning second serves, with a win rate of 44.91%, Fanselow is slightly weaker at 42.42%. However, when it comes to first serve returns, Fanselow leads with 27.66% over Gray's 24.77%.
• Under pressure, Fanselow has a slight advantage, saving 59.66% of breakpoints compared to Gray's 57.07%.
• In terms of overall win-loss performance in the past year, Gray has a commanding edge, winning 70.77% of his matches, while Fanselow stands at 50.00%.
• Both players show their highest success on hard courts, each with a 68% win rate, but Gray struggles more on grass than Fanselow.
• When playing in $10K tournaments, Gray has been more successful, achieving an 80.77% win rate against Fanselow's 51.72%. What might this indicate for their matchup?
• In matches going to a deciding set, Gray has the upper hand, winning 52% compared to Fanselow's 38%.
• Break point conversion sees Fanselow slightly ahead, converting 32.00% against Gray's 30.71%.
• Gray faces opponents with a slightly higher average ranking, possibly indicating tougher competition faced compared to Fanselow.

Editorial Prediction (November 21, 2025, UTC):

Alastair Gray shows a consistent edge in recent form, leveraging superior second serve performance and a better record in clutch situations, particularly in deciding sets.

He has also faced tougher competition over the last 12 months, which may have honed his skills more than his opponent.

While Sebastian Fanselow displays strength in break point conversion and first serve returns, these factors might not be enough against Gray's overall stronger recent record and higher win rate in similar tournament settings.

Considering these factors, Alastair Gray appears to be the more likely victor in the upcoming match.